Stock Picks for 2009 Quarterly Update (Oct)

At the beginning of 2009, a group of bloggers thought it would be a good idea to have a stock picking competition and have quarterly updates.

Here were my picks at the beginning of the year

My 4 Stock Picks

  1. Hanfeng Evergreen (HF.TO) – This company creates high yielding fertilizer for the Chinese market.  I’ve been watching this stock for a couple years now and it seems to be oversold relative to their (profitable) earnings.  This stock has the possibility of making a comeback providing that the Chinese market makes a partial recovery.  If the markets don’t cooperate in 2009, then this stock could go down even further.  Price as of closing Dec 31, 2008: $5.63
  2. Johnson and Johnson (JNJ) – Now that I have my exciting stock out of the way, time to go to the boring large cap stuff.  Johnson and Johnson manufactures ’staple’ items like Tylenol, Johnson baby products, band aid, Listerine and other popular skin care products.  Even in a recession, I believe that people will continue to buy these products.  JNJ also offers a sustainable dividend at an attractive yield.  Price as of closing Dec 31, 2008: $59.83
  3. Husky Energy (HSE.TO) – This is my pick for some energy sector exposure.  Even though the potential global recession throughout 2009 could keep oil prices depressed, I like Husky Energy’s oil properties and their profitability.  Their dividend doesn’t hurt either. Price as of closing Dec 31, 2008: $30.87
  4. Power Financial (PWF.TO) – This holding company has large positions in IGM Financial, Great West Life, Canada Life and London Life.  It offers a generous sustainable dividend and I believe that this stock has been irrationally oversold.  Hopefully PWF will recover in 2009. Price as of closing Dec 31, 2008: $23.90

Here are the results from the previous quarter (July):

  1. Four Pillars 48.83%
  2. Intelligent Speculator 43.32%
  3. The Wild Investor 41.45%
  4. Where does all my money go 28.72%
  5. The Financial Blogger 13.29%
  6. Million Dollar Journey 4.76%
  7. Dividend Growth Investor 0.70%
  8. Zach Stocks -3.09%
  9. My Traders Journal -11.36%
  10. S & P 500 +3.16%

Here is the most recent update:

Blog Ytd
IntelligentSpeculator 73.03%
WildInvestor 56.78%
FourPillars 44.26%
Wheredoesallmymoneygo 43.01%
TheFinancialBlogger 24.49%
Dividend Growth Investor 11.51%
MDJ 8.49%
MyTradersJournal -3.16%
ZachStocks -13.17%
All picks average 27.25%
Worst pick -37.80%
Best pick 199.49%

Looks like my picks have an acceptable return of 8.49% (not including dividends), but well behind the average of the pack! The winning stock ideas of 2009 thus far seem to be technology, resources and oil.

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FT is the founder and editor of Million Dollar Journey (est. 2006). Through various financial strategies outlined on this site, he grew his net worth from $200,000 in 2006 to $1,000,000 by 2014. You can read more about him here.
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12 years ago

I can imagine that some of the less than stellar performance of the US listed equities is that attributed to the underperformance of the US dollar vis a vis the Canadian dollar.

With many analysts predicting dollar parity (and even reversing the ratio) 2010 may be a time to buy more US stocks. If you believe the long term trend of the Canadian dollar is .85 USD then you can realise a currency benefit along with the capital appreciation (and dividend income if appropriate).

I think it would be interesting to throw up some standard indices for comparison (e.g. S&P, Dow, MCSI EAFE, etc.) during the same periods. Even though no one was restricted to any particular country or industry it would be illuminating.

Dividend Growth Investor
12 years ago

Link to me, link to me (for 3Q ;-) )

I am somewhat satisfied with my performance YTD on those picks..

Four Pillars
12 years ago

I’ve had a pretty good year although I’m down to third. I need oil to rebound a bit!

Canada Deals
12 years ago

Two questions (if you don’t mind):

I live in Edmonton Alberta where energy, specifically oil, is a huge industry. How can get my feet wet buying stocks in this industry without a lot of risk?

Also, will you guys be doing picks again for 2010?

12 years ago

I like 3 of 4 but the Husky one baffles me. Anything to do with the oil industry is a risk. There may be some short term gains but petroleum is dead. The only thing Husky can do is increase market share of the existing market because the market is going to decrease in size until it is gone. Just 3 years ago analyst predicted that the market for retail gasoline would double by 2030….those same experts not say that demand will be 50% by 2025.

12 years ago

Can’t state enough how important the sacrifices that go into wealth creation are.

Curious if anyone has caught this book yet? “The Richest Man in Town” by W Randall Jones. I’ve read half of it so far and let me tell you it is well worth it. Would like to hear what everyone else thought of it?

The Rat
12 years ago

Really nice selection of stocks if you ask me. I’m familiar with JNJ, HSE, and PWF, all yielding impressive yields of 3.28%, 4.09%, and 4.71% respectively.

I have to say, I had not heard of Hanfeng Evergreen (HF) and looks like it could be a gem given some of the info and commentaries made about the stock…interesting..